Chris Weidman vs Gegard Mousasi Betting Pick Breakdown

The UFC is back with the UFC 210 PPV card this Saturday after a couple weeks off.  The main event is a title fight rematch between Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson, but the fight that interests me the most on the card is the co-main event between Chris Weidman and Gegard Mousasi.

Weidman has lost two straight fights in convincing fashion.  He first lost his title to Luke Rockhold and followed that up by getting knocked out by a Yoel Romero knee at UFC 205 at MSG.  The question about Weidman is now whether he really belongs with the elite of the middleweight division.  His title reign included wins over three Brazilian legends who were far past their primes in Silva, Machida and Belfort.  Each of these legends has gone on to do very little since their losses to Weidman, which diminishes these victories for Weidman in some fans and critics eyes.  A win over Mousasi would do a lot to show that he does deserve to be considered one of the best at middleweight and possibly get him back on track for a title shot.

Mousasi is a guy who has been coasting under the radar in the UFC for a long time now.  The true fans of the sport have always known he’s one of the elite fighters in the division, which his odds showcase as he’s been a massive favourite in each of his last 7 UFC fights.  He won 6 of these fights with the only loss coming via a flying knee knockout to Uriah Hall, which he avenged in a rematch in his most recent fight.  This fight with Weidman is the first in that span where Mousasi hasn’t been close to a 3 to 1 favourite, with this one fairly close to a pick’em.  A win over Weidman would solidify what most fight fans believe: that Mousasi is and has always been a top 5 fighter in the middleweight division.

I’m going to break down how I see this fight playing out.  The odds are from Bet365.com.

Weidman vs Mousasi Odds

  • Chris Weidman 2.10
  • Gegard Mousasi 1.72

Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 rounds 1.57
  • Under 2.5 rounds 2.50

Method Of Victory

  • Weidman inside distance 4.50
  • Mousasi inside distance 3.25
  • Weidman by decision 3.40
  • Mousasi by decision 3.40

My Pick

As I said above there are some people who question just how good Weidman is and discounts some of his wins as champion.  I’m one of those people.  I’ve never been all that impressed by Chris Weidman and felt that he was gifted some easy title defenses against fighters with name value when there were better fighters out there at middleweight.  Weidman’s base is wrestling, but it really hasn’t helped him win many of his fights with the takedowns only really working against Vitor Belfort, who he finished on the ground after his initial takedown.  I would even argue that Rockhold and Romero both outwrestled Weidman.  I’m not saying Mousasi is going to outwrestle him in this fight, but I don’t think he has much of an advantage on the mat if any at all.

On the feet though Mousasi has a significant advantage.  His striking is very strong technically and he actually has a decent amount of output (3.68 strikes per minute) when you factor in how little he gets hit himself (1.20 strikes absorbed per minute).  I expect Mousasi to be able to pick Weidman apart on the feet.  Mousasi also has much more power than he’s generally given credit for.  I think he has a shot at hurting Weidman on the feet and then likely finishing him with ground and pound.  Mousasi with the finish in round 2 is how I see this fight playing out.

Play: Mousasi 1.72

I prefer simply taking Mousasi to win the fight though because I can also see this fight going to a decision after Mousasi outstrikes Weidman for 3 rounds.

April 4, 2017 by : Posted in Other Sports No Comments

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